longbridge-earnings-revision

Prompt-only analysis skill. Orchestrates Longbridge CLI commands to track analyst estimate revision direction, quantify earnings surprise, detect PEAD momentum signals, and analyse management guidance shifts.

Response language: match the user's input language — Simplified Chinese / Traditional Chinese / English.

When to use

• "TSLA 预期修正方向", "TSLA estimate revision trend", "TSLA 預期修正方向"
• "NVDA 超预期幅度", "NVDA earnings surprise", "NVDA 超預期幅度"
• "AAPL PEAD 信号", "AAPL post-earnings drift signal"
• "700.HK 分析师上调了吗", "700.HK analyst upgrades"
• "苹果管理层指引变了吗", "AAPL management guidance revision"

For raw consensus snapshot (current estimates only) use longbridge-consensus. For valuation use longbridge-valuation.

CLI

Run longbridge <subcommand> --help to verify exact flags. Call concurrently:

# Consensus base — always run
longbridge consensus <SYMBOL> --format json

# Forward EPS by period
longbridge forecast-eps <SYMBOL> --format json

# Rating distribution + target price change history (key for revision direction)
longbridge institution-rating <SYMBOL> --format json
longbridge institution-rating <SYMBOL> --history --format json

# If unsure about flags:
longbridge consensus --help
longbridge forecast-eps --help
longbridge institution-rating --help

Workflow

1. Resolve symbol to <CODE>.<MARKET> format.

2. Determine scope from user prompt:

   Prompt intent	Commands to run
   Revision direction	consensus + institution-rating --history
   Beat / miss / surprise	forecast-eps (actuals vs estimates)
   PEAD signal	forecast-eps + institution-rating --history
   Guidance revision impact	consensus + institution-rating --history

3. In-LLM analysis:

Estimate revision direction

Compare current consensus mean EPS vs prior period from institution-rating --history:

• Rising → upward revision (bullish signal)
• Flat → neutral
• Falling → downward revision (bearish signal)

Count: how many analysts revised up vs down over last 30 / 90 days.

Earnings surprise (SUE)

SUE = (Actual EPS − Consensus estimate) / Standard deviation of estimates

PEAD signal

Consecutive beats (≥ 2) + upward revisions → positive momentum signal. Consecutive misses (≥ 2) + downward revisions → negative momentum signal. Note: PEAD is a statistical tendency, not a guarantee of future returns.

Guidance revision

Identify if most-recent management guidance is above / below / in-line with prior consensus; assess subsequent revision direction as confirmation or pushback.

4. Output structured analysis; cite Longbridge Securities; end with disclaimer.

Output

{Symbol} Earnings Revision Analysis — Source: Longbridge Securities
As of: {date}

[Estimate revision direction (past 30 / 90 days)]
- EPS revision: {Rising / Flat / Falling}
- Upgrades: {N} analysts  |  Downgrades: {N} analysts
- Net revision bias: {Positive / Neutral / Negative}

[Earnings surprise history (last 4 quarters)]
Quarter | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise % | SUE
{Q4}    | {A}        | {E}      | {±X%}      | {val}
{Q3}    | ...
{Q2}    | ...
{Q1}    | ...

[PEAD signal]
- Pattern: {N consecutive beats / misses / mixed}
- Revision bias: {upward / neutral / downward}
- PEAD inference: {Positive momentum / Neutral / Negative momentum}
⚠️ PEAD is a statistical tendency, not a forecast.

[Guidance revision]
- Latest management guidance vs prior consensus: {Above / In-line / Below}
- Analyst response: {Upgraded / Unchanged / Downgraded}

⚠️ 以上分析仅供参考，不构成投资建议。/ 以上分析僅供參考，不構成投資建議。/ For reference only. Not investment advice.

Error handling

MCP fallback

If longbridge CLI is not installed, use MCP tools:

When the CLI is unavailable, fall back to the MCP server. Discover available tools from the MCP server's tool list at runtime — do not rely on hardcoded tool names.

MCP setup: claude mcp add --transport http longbridge https://openapi.longbridge.com/mcp (quote scope).

Related skills

• Raw consensus snapshot → longbridge-consensus
• Post-earnings deep-dive → longbridge-earnings
• Pre-earnings preview → longbridge-earnings-preview
• Full fundamentals → longbridge-fundamental
• Valuation → longbridge-valuation

File layout

longbridge-earnings-revision/
└── SKILL.md   # prompt-only, no scripts/