longbridge-tech-hype

Tech hype versus fundamentals — detect valuation bubbles and identify which theme-driven rallies have fundamental backing.

Response language: match the user's input language — Simplified Chinese / Traditional Chinese / English.

When to use

Trigger on prompts asking for:

• Bubble or hype detection — "这只 AI 概念股是不是泡沫", "AI bubble check", "估值泡沫"
• Theme vs. fundamentals — "主题炒作还是有基本面", "hype vs fundamentals", "narrative vs reality"
• Tech sector valuation check — "科技股估值贵不贵", "半导体概念股", "新能源估值"

For pure valuation percentile defer to longbridge-valuation. For sector-wide ranking defer to longbridge-constituent.

Workflow

1. Extract and normalise the symbol(s).
2. Fetch in parallel:
   • Valuation multiples and historical percentile (PE, PS, EV/EBITDA)
   • Industry median valuation for peer context
   • Last 2–3 years income statement (revenue growth, net income growth, gross margin trend)
   • Recent news and narrative themes
3. Compute the Hype Score:
   • Valuation percentile (0–100) vs. revenue growth rate
   • Gap = valuation_percentile − revenue_growth_rank (positive = hype-heavy)
4. Classify the stock:
   • Fundamentally Justified — growth supports valuation
   • Partially Justified — moderate gap, watch closely
   • Hype-Driven — large gap, sentiment outpacing fundamentals
   • Detached Bubble — extreme valuation with decelerating growth
5. Summarise key narrative themes from news and flag whether each has financial backing.

If unsure of exact flag names, run longbridge <subcommand> --help before proceeding.

CLI

# Valuation multiples and historical percentile
longbridge valuation <SYMBOL> --format json

# Industry median valuation
longbridge industry-valuation <SYMBOL> --format json

# Income statement — revenue, net income, margins
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --format json

# Recent news — theme keywords
longbridge news <SYMBOL> --format json

Output structure

TECH HYPE ANALYSIS — <SYMBOL>  <Date>

VERDICT: [Fundamentally Justified | Partially Justified | Hype-Driven | Detached Bubble]
Hype Score: xx/100  (higher = more hype-heavy)

VALUATION SNAPSHOT
PE:  xx.x×  (xx-th percentile, 3Y)   Industry median: xx.x×
PS:  x.x×   (xx-th percentile, 3Y)
EV/EBITDA: xx.x×  (xx-th percentile, 3Y)

FUNDAMENTAL CHECK
Revenue Growth (YoY):  +xx%  →  +xx%  →  +xx%
Net Income Growth:     +xx%  →  +xx%  →  +xx%
Gross Margin:          xx%   →  xx%   →  xx%

NARRATIVE THEMES (from news)
Theme               Has Backing?   Evidence
AI / LLM            ✓ Partial      Revenue up xx%, but margin flat
Semiconductor cycle ✗ No data      Mostly sentiment-driven
...

CONCLUSION
<2–3 sentence synthesis of hype vs. fundamental alignment>

Error handling

MCP fallback

When the CLI is unavailable, fall back to the MCP server. Discover available tools from the MCP server's tool list at runtime.

Related skills

• longbridge-valuation — valuation percentile and industry comparison
• longbridge-fundamental — deep financial KPI analysis
• longbridge-news — news and sentiment signals
• longbridge-peer-comparison — cross-symbol valuation matrix

File layout

skills/longbridge-tech-hype/
└── SKILL.md