whenpoem

Rank competing hypotheses with online Bradley-Terry updates and LUCB intervals. Replaces elo-select. Use whenever there are 3 or more candidate hypotheses competing for the next experiment, or when the user wants to understand which branch is currently leading.

Writing reports or papers. Use when producing any .md file that makes claims about experimental results.

Rank competing hypotheses with pairwise Elo updates before choosing what to implement.

Lock the falsification target for a confirmatory hypothesis before promoting results to main claims. Records metric, direction, threshold, multiple-comparison correction, and seed budget into ver_preregistrations.

End-to-end statistical proof loop. Use when the user asks to prove a statistical proposition, when a hypothesis is promoted to a theorem, or when the empirical trunk's reviewer demands a theorem-side gate. This SOP is suggestion-only (per ADR 0007); skip, loop, or interleave with empirical work as the situation calls for.

Run a counterfactual ("what if we had approved hyp_07 instead of pruning it") against a saved snapshot without mutating the live graph. Use when the user wants to second-guess a paused branch or audit a past pruning decision.

End-to-end research loop. Use at the start of any new research task; triggers literature review, hypothesis generation, Elo selection, experimentation, and verification.

Systematic debugging. Use when a script errors or produces unexpected results.