Merger Model
description: Build accretion/dilution analysis for M&A transactions. Models pro forma EPS impact, synergy sensitivities, and purchase price allocation. Use when evaluating a potential acquisition, preparing merger consequences analysis for a pitch, or advising on deal terms. Triggers on "merger model", "accretion dilution", "M&A model", "pro forma EPS", "merger consequences", or "deal impact analysis".
Workflow
Step 1: Gather Inputs
Acquirer:
- Company name, current share price, shares outstanding
- LTM and NTM EPS (GAAP and adjusted)
- P/E multiple
- Pre-tax cost of debt, tax rate
- Cash on balance sheet, existing debt
Target:
- Company name, current share price, shares outstanding (if public)
- LTM and NTM EPS or net income
- Enterprise value or equity value
Deal Terms:
- Offer price per share (or premium to current)
- Consideration mix: % cash vs. % stock
- New debt raised to fund cash portion
- Expected synergies (revenue and cost) and phase-in timeline
- Transaction fees and financing costs
- Expected close date
Step 2: Purchase Price Analysis
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Offer price per share | |
| Premium to current | |
| Equity value | |
| Plus: net debt assumed | |
| Enterprise value | |
| EV / EBITDA implied | |
| P/E implied |
Step 3: Sources & Uses
| Sources | $ | Uses | $ |
|---|---|---|---|
| New debt | Equity purchase price | ||
| Cash on hand | Refinance target debt | ||
| New equity issued | Transaction fees | ||
| Financing fees | |||
| Total | Total |
Step 4: Pro Forma EPS (Accretion / Dilution)
Calculate year-by-year (Year 1-3):
| Standalone | Pro Forma | Accretion/(Dilution) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acquirer net income | |||
| Target net income | |||
| Synergies (after tax) | |||
| Foregone interest on cash (after tax) | |||
| New debt interest (after tax) | |||
| Intangible amortization (after tax) | |||
| Pro forma net income | |||
| Pro forma shares | |||
| Pro forma EPS | |||
| Accretion / (Dilution) % |
Step 5: Sensitivity Analysis
Accretion/Dilution vs. Synergies and Offer Premium:
| $0M syn | $25M syn | $50M syn | $75M syn | $100M syn | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% premium | |||||
| 20% premium | |||||
| 25% premium | |||||
| 30% premium |
Accretion/Dilution vs. Cash/Stock Mix:
| 100% cash | 75/25 | 50/50 | 25/75 | 100% stock | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | |||||
| Year 2 |
Step 6: Breakeven Synergies
Calculate the minimum synergies needed for the deal to be EPS-neutral in Year 1.
Step 7: Output
- Excel workbook with:
- Assumptions tab
- Sources & uses
- Pro forma income statement
- Accretion/dilution summary
- Sensitivity tables
- Breakeven analysis
- One-page merger consequences summary for pitch book
Important Notes
- Always show both GAAP and adjusted (cash) EPS where relevant
- Stock deals: use acquirer's current price for exchange ratio, note dilution from new shares
- Include purchase price allocation — goodwill and intangible amortization matter for GAAP EPS
- Synergy phase-in is critical — Year 1 is often only 25-50% of run-rate synergies
- Don't forget foregone interest income on cash used and new interest expense on debt raised
- Tax rate on synergies and interest adjustments should match the acquirer's marginal rate