GIST Planning

Replace opinion-based roadmaps with evidence-guided planning. Source: Gilad (Evidence Guided).

Preflight: Read target canvas file(s) before any Write/Edit

Hard rule. Before issuing Write or Edit against any .claude/canvas/*.yml, use the Read tool on that file in this session. Claude Code's Read-before-Write check requires the Read tool specifically — cat/head/grep via Bash do NOT satisfy it.

Edit vs Write — different cost profiles (verified 2026-05-14):

• Edit (exact-string replacement): Read with limit: 1 satisfies the check at ~50 tokens. State-tracking is per-file, not per-byte — subsequent Edit calls work anywhere in the file. Use this for partial updates against large canvas files (e.g., purpose.yml at 800+ lines).
• Write (full replacement): do a full Read first. Write obliterates the file; you should see what you're about to replace. The limit:1 shortcut is not appropriate here.

ID-bearing entries — scan the ID space before assigning (added 2026-05-15, v0.23.19): When adding a new component, opportunity, solution, or any other ID-bearing entry to a canvas file, run a Bash grep first to confirm the next ID in your prefix sequence is actually free:

grep "^  - id: <prefix>-" .claude/canvas/<file>.yml | sort -u

Replace <prefix> with the canvas's ID prefix (comp for landscape, opp for opportunities, sol for solutions, ht for human-tasks, etc.). Then pick the next free integer. validate_canvas.py has a duplicate-ID check (lines 230-239) that catches the failure on CI, but a duplicate can persist in the working tree for days if CI isn't run between edit and discovery — see roadmap-repo corrections.md 2026-05-15 "Duplicate canvas ID created in landscape.yml" for the worked example.

Original failure mode: anti-pattern #7 instance #5, 2026-05-09 — agent conflated Bash head with the Read tool, lost ~14k tokens to a Write-fail → remedial-full-Read → re-Write loop. The limit:1 discipline (graduated 2026-05-14, v0.23.18) prevents the second-order cost where the agent correctly follows the rule but full-Reads every time. The ID-scan discipline (graduated 2026-05-15, v0.23.19) prevents the related class where the agent reads enough of the file to satisfy the Edit check but not enough to see existing ID assignments — kin to anti-pattern #8 (Stale State Read).

If this skill writes to multiple canvas files, register each one first (limit:1 for Edit-only paths; full Read for Write paths) AND ID-scan any prefix you intend to assign.

See CLAUDE.md Canvas writes — Read before Write for the canonical rule.

Workflow

1. Set Goals (Quarterly)

• Derive from North Star input metrics or OKRs
• Format: "Improve [metric] from [current] to [target] by [date]"
• Maximum 3 goals per quarter
• Update .claude/canvas/gist.yml goals section

2. Generate Ideas (Ongoing)

• Ideas are hypothetical ways to achieve goals
• Most ideas fail (>80%) -- this is expected and planned for
• Generate many, hold loosely
• Store in .claude/canvas/gist.yml idea bank with ICE scores
• Never commit to an idea until evidence supports it

3. Score with ICE + Confidence Meter

Use /mycelium:ice-score to prioritize. ICE scoring (Ellis; confidence dimension added by Gilad):

• Confidence is NOT gut feel -- it maps to evidence levels
• 0.1 = opinion only | 0.5 = data supports | 0.7 = tested | 0.9 = launched
• Rescore after every experiment

Mycelium uses 0.0-1.0 (adapted from Gilad's 0-10 non-linear Confidence Meter). See /mycelium:ice-score for details.

4. Design Steps (per top idea)

• Steps are small, time-boxed activities that build evidence
• Each step has: hypothesis, method, success criteria, MoSCoW priority
• Tag each step as Must / Should / Could / Won't (DSDM):
  • Must: Non-negotiable. Delivery fails without this. All REVIEW checks apply.
  • Should: Important. Ship if time allows. All REVIEW checks apply.
  • Could: Nice-to-have. Cut first when timebox runs out. NUDGE checks only.
  • Won't: Explicitly out of scope for this cycle. Documented for future reference.
• Steps follow a confidence ladder: assessment -> exploratory experiment -> feature experiment -> launch
• Each step produces evidence that increases or decreases confidence
• If evidence is negative: pivot or kill the idea (sunk cost is irrelevant)
• For user-facing ideas, frame hypotheses in Lean UX format: "We believe [outcome] for [users] if [change]." (Gothelf)
• When a delivery timebox is exceeded: Flex scope using MoSCoW — cut Could/Won't before compromising Must/Should

5. Execute Tasks (Sprint-level)

• Tasks belong to the CURRENT step only
• Don't plan tasks for future steps
• Standard agile execution

6. Reprioritize (Continuous)

After each step completes:

• Update ICE scores based on new evidence
• Re-rank ideas
• Kill ideas below threshold
• Surface new ideas from discovery work

Shape Up: Appetite Over Estimates

Instead of asking "how long will this take?", ask "how much is this worth?" (Shape Up by Basecamp). Set an appetite — the maximum time you're willing to invest — then design the solution to fit within it. If the solution can't fit, narrow the scope, don't extend the timebox. This connects naturally to MoSCoW: appetite defines the timebox, MoSCoW decides what fits within it.

Anti-Pattern: The Feature Roadmap

If your GIST board looks like a feature list with dates, you're doing it wrong. Goals are outcomes, ideas are hypotheses, steps are experiments.