growth-trigger-analysis

Growth Trigger & Variant Perception Analysis

Produce an SOIC-style variant perception scorecard and growth triggers list from company concall transcripts.

When to use

Invoke when user says:

• "growth triggers for SAILIFE"
• "VP analysis for HDFCBANK"
• "analyze concalls for TATAELXSI"
• "variant perception scorecard for [company]"
• any request for forward-looking trigger extraction from earnings calls

Prerequisites

Concall transcripts should ideally exist at:

data/companies/{SYMBOL}/concalls/

If transcripts are missing, the skill fetches them automatically (see Step 1).

Workflow

Step 1: Identify symbol and verify data

1. Extract SYMBOL from user request
2. Glob for data/companies/{SYMBOL}/concalls/*_Transcript.md (or *.pdf)
3. If at least 2 transcripts exist (4 preferred), sort by date and pick 4 most recent
4. If none found → auto-fetch using the fallback strategy below

Auto-fetch concall transcripts

If local transcripts are missing:

1. Screener.in: WebFetch https://www.screener.in/company/{SYMBOL}/consolidated/ — extract all concall PDF links (BSE links). If consolidated fails, try https://www.screener.in/company/{SYMBOL}/
2. Web Search (official): If screener yields no links, WebSearch "{COMPANY_NAME}" conference call transcript site:bseindia.com
3. Web Search (third-party): If still nothing, WebSearch "{COMPANY_NAME}" earnings call transcript
4. Download the latest 4 concall PDFs using curl -sL into data/companies/{SYMBOL}/concalls/
5. Read each downloaded PDF using the Read tool to extract transcript content

Step 2: Read all transcripts

Read the 4 most recent *_Transcript.md files FULLY — management remarks AND Q&A. Do not skip or summarize.

Step 3: Build company context

From the transcripts, establish:

• Sector and sub-sector
• Business segments and revenue mix
• Key products / services / customers
• Capacity base (current + planned)
• Cycle position (early/mid/late in growth cycle)
• Current consensus / market narrative (inferred from management guidance + analyst questions)

Step 4: Identify VP factors

Scan for factors in two buckets:

Company-specific growth drivers (tag each if present with evidence):

• New product introduction
• Geographical expansion
• Growth in end-user industry
• Client mining / wallet share expansion
• Taking away market share
• Industry growth
• Expanding distribution
• Acquisitions
• Capital expenditure / capacity addition
• Margin expansion (mix / operating leverage / efficiency)
• Premiumisation-led growth
• Economies of scale
• Cost reduction / backward integration
• Operating leverage
• Regulatory / approval-led expansion

Industry/sector VP buckets (tag each if present):

• Demand-supply mismatch
• Regulatory changes / new norms
• New industry creation
• Consolidation

For each factor, capture:

• Evidence snippet: verbatim quote (max ~25 words) + source quarter
• Why it matters: mechanism to revenue / margin / cashflow
• Time-to-impact: 0-2Q / 3-4Q / 5-8Q / >8Q
• Structural vs one-off: state which and why

Step 5: Create VP Scorecard

Rank by (Probability x Magnitude of Impact). Table columns:

| # | VP Factor | Type | Current Market Belief | Alternate Reality (VP) | Trigger(s) | Evidence (quote) | Timing | EPS Impact Path | Rerating Path | Probability | Kill-Switch | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Include at least 5 ranked factors.

Step 6: Top 3 VP deep dives

For each of top 3 VPs, write 5-7 bullets:

• Why this is truly variant (not already priced in)
• The cleanest trigger to watch
• 2-3 variables to track each quarter

Step 7: Forward-looking growth triggers

Extract ALL forward-looking triggers into a consolidated bullet list:

• Each trigger = one bullet point
• Start with action/outcome, not "management said"
• Include specific numbers and timelines
• Present/future tense only — NO past metrics
• Deduplicate across quarters (keep most recent version)

Step 8: Write output

Write the COMPLETE analysis to:

data/companies/{SYMBOL}/growth_trigger_analysis.md

Use this structure:

# {SYMBOL} — Variant Perception & Growth Triggers Analysis

## Company Context
[sector, segments, customers, capacity, cycle position, consensus narrative]

## Growth Drivers Checklist
[table of present factors with evidence]

## VP Scorecard
[ranked table]

## Top 3 VPs — Deep Dive
[5-7 bullets each]

## Growth Triggers
Key Triggers for {COMPANY_NAME}:
- [trigger 1]
- [trigger 2]
...

Evidence rules

• Every VP MUST have verbatim evidence. If missing → "Unproven in provided docs"
• Don't mix one-offs vs structural — state which and why
• Be explicit on time horizons and falsifiers
• Cross-reference across quarters — use latest version if updated
• No past performance metrics in triggers — only forward-looking
• No generic statements — be specific with numbers and timelines

Output location

data/companies/{SYMBOL}/growth_trigger_analysis.md