longbridge-dcf

longbridge-dcf

Build a step-by-step DCF model for any listed company using Longbridge financial data, arriving at an intrinsic value per share and margin of safety versus the current price.

Response language: match the user's input language — Simplified Chinese / Traditional Chinese / English.

When to use

• "帮我做 AAPL 的 DCF 估值", "run a DCF on AAPL", "幫我做 AAPL 的 DCF 估值"
• "NVDA 内在价值是多少", "what is NVDA's intrinsic value"
• "用现金流折现算一下茅台", "discounted cash flow for Maotai"
• "WACC 怎么计算", "how do I calculate WACC for this stock"
• "给我算安全边际", "margin of safety vs intrinsic value"

For valuation multiples (PE/PB/EV-EBITDA), use longbridge-valuation. For methodology overview, use longbridge-valuation-methodology.

Workflow

Step 1 — Fetch raw financial data

# Cash flow statement (FCF inputs)
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind CF --format json

# Income statement (revenue growth, margins)
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --format json

# Beta and market cap for WACC
longbridge calc-index <SYMBOL> --format json

Run longbridge financial-report --help and longbridge calc-index --help to verify available flags.

Step 2 — Calculate historical FCF

FCF = Operating Cash Flow − Capital Expenditure

Extract the last 3–5 years of operating cash flow and capex from the CF statement. Compute FCF for each year and derive the compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

Step 3 — Project FCF

Use a two-stage model:

• Stage 1 (years 1–5): Apply an analyst-estimated or CAGR-derived growth rate. Ask the user if they want a bull / base / bear case.
• Stage 2 (terminal): Apply a long-run growth rate g (default: GDP growth rate of the company's primary market, typically 2–4%).

Step 4 — Estimate WACC

WACC = Wd × Rd × (1 − t) + We × Re
Re  = Rf + β × ERP

| Input | Source | |---|---| | Beta (β) | longbridge calc-index <SYMBOL> --format json | | Risk-free rate (Rf) | 10-year government bond yield of primary market (US: ~4.2%, CN: ~2.3%, HK: ~4.0%) | | Equity risk premium (ERP) | Damodaran country ERP (US: ~4.6%, CN: ~7%, HK: ~6%) | | Debt ratio (Wd) | From balance sheet (total debt / (total debt + market cap)) | | Cost of debt (Rd) | Interest expense / total debt from IS + BS | | Tax rate (t) | Effective tax rate from IS |

Step 5 — Terminal value

TV = FCF₅ × (1 + g) / (WACC − g)

Common alternative: exit multiple method — apply an EV/EBITDA multiple consistent with mature peers.

Step 6 — Intrinsic value

1. Discount each projected FCF to present value at WACC.
2. Discount terminal value to present value.
3. Sum all PVs → Enterprise Value.
4. Subtract net debt; add cash → Equity Value.
5. Divide by diluted shares outstanding → Intrinsic Value per Share.

Step 7 — Margin of safety

Margin of Safety = (Intrinsic Value − Current Price) / Intrinsic Value × 100%

Positive = undervalued; negative = overvalued. Show sensitivity table for ±1% WACC and ±1% terminal growth.

CLI

longbridge financial-report --help
longbridge calc-index --help

longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind CF --format json
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --format json
longbridge calc-index <SYMBOL> --format json

Output

Present results as:

1. Historical FCF table (3–5 years).
2. Projected FCF table (5 years, 3 scenarios if requested).
3. WACC components breakdown.
4. Intrinsic value per share.
5. Margin of safety vs current price.
6. Sensitivity matrix (WACC × terminal growth rate).
7. Key assumptions and caveats.

Always include a disclaimer: DCF is highly sensitive to assumptions; treat output as a range, not a precise target.

Error handling

| Situation | 简体回复 | 繁體回覆 | English reply | |---|---|---|---| | command not found: longbridge | 请安装 longbridge-terminal 或检查 MCP 配置。 | 請安裝 longbridge-terminal 或檢查 MCP 配置。 | Install longbridge-terminal or check MCP config. | | stderr: not logged in | 请运行 longbridge auth login。 | 請執行 longbridge auth login。 | Run longbridge auth login. | | No CF data available | 该标的暂无现金流数据，可能是上市不足三年或非标准财报。 | 該標的暫無現金流數據，可能是上市不足三年。 | No cash flow data; the company may be too recently listed or use non-standard reporting. | | Negative FCF history | 历史 FCF 为负，DCF 模型需用户提供未来盈利假设。 | 歷史 FCF 為負，需用戶提供未來盈利假設。 | Historical FCF is negative; DCF requires user-supplied future profitability assumptions. |

Related skills

• longbridge-valuation-methodology — method selection guide
• longbridge-valuation — current PE/PB/EV-EBITDA snapshot
• longbridge-fundamental — revenue / EPS / margin KPIs
• longbridge-financial-report — detailed financial statements

File layout

skills/longbridge-dcf/
└── SKILL.md