longbridge-earnings-revision

longbridge-earnings-revision

Prompt-only analysis skill. Orchestrates Longbridge CLI commands to track analyst estimate revision direction, quantify earnings surprise, detect PEAD momentum signals, and analyse management guidance shifts.

Response language: match the user's input language — Simplified Chinese / Traditional Chinese / English.

When to use

• "TSLA 预期修正方向", "TSLA estimate revision trend", "TSLA 預期修正方向"
• "NVDA 超预期幅度", "NVDA earnings surprise", "NVDA 超預期幅度"
• "AAPL PEAD 信号", "AAPL post-earnings drift signal"
• "700.HK 分析师上调了吗", "700.HK analyst upgrades"
• "苹果管理层指引变了吗", "AAPL management guidance revision"

For raw consensus snapshot (current estimates only) use longbridge-consensus. For valuation use longbridge-valuation.

CLI

Run longbridge <subcommand> --help to verify exact flags. Call concurrently:

# Consensus base — always run
longbridge consensus <SYMBOL> --format json

# Forward EPS by period
longbridge forecast-eps <SYMBOL> --format json

# Rating distribution + target price change history (key for revision direction)
longbridge institution-rating <SYMBOL> --format json
longbridge institution-rating <SYMBOL> --history --format json

# If unsure about flags:
longbridge consensus --help
longbridge forecast-eps --help
longbridge institution-rating --help

Workflow

1. Resolve symbol to <CODE>.<MARKET> format.
2. Determine scope from user prompt:

| Prompt intent | Commands to run | |---|---| | Revision direction | consensus + institution-rating --history | | Beat / miss / surprise | forecast-eps (actuals vs estimates) | | PEAD signal | forecast-eps + institution-rating --history | | Guidance revision impact | consensus + institution-rating --history |

1. In-LLM analysis:

Estimate revision direction

Compare current consensus mean EPS vs prior period from institution-rating --history:

• Rising → upward revision (bullish signal)
• Flat → neutral
• Falling → downward revision (bearish signal)

Count: how many analysts revised up vs down over last 30 / 90 days.

Earnings surprise (SUE)

SUE = (Actual EPS − Consensus estimate) / Standard deviation of estimates

| SUE range | Label | |---|---| | > +2 | Strong beat | | +1 to +2 | Beat | | -1 to +1 | In-line | | -2 to -1 | Miss | | < -2 | Strong miss |

PEAD signal

Consecutive beats (≥ 2) + upward revisions → positive momentum signal. Consecutive misses (≥ 2) + downward revisions → negative momentum signal. Note: PEAD is a statistical tendency, not a guarantee of future returns.

Guidance revision

Identify if most-recent management guidance is above / below / in-line with prior consensus; assess subsequent revision direction as confirmation or pushback.

1. Output structured analysis; cite Longbridge Securities; end with disclaimer.

Output

{Symbol} Earnings Revision Analysis — Source: Longbridge Securities
As of: {date}

[Estimate revision direction (past 30 / 90 days)]
- EPS revision: {Rising / Flat / Falling}
- Upgrades: {N} analysts  |  Downgrades: {N} analysts
- Net revision bias: {Positive / Neutral / Negative}

[Earnings surprise history (last 4 quarters)]
Quarter | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise % | SUE
{Q4}    | {A}        | {E}      | {±X%}      | {val}
{Q3}    | ...
{Q2}    | ...
{Q1}    | ...

[PEAD signal]
- Pattern: {N consecutive beats / misses / mixed}
- Revision bias: {upward / neutral / downward}
- PEAD inference: {Positive momentum / Neutral / Negative momentum}
⚠️ PEAD is a statistical tendency, not a forecast.

[Guidance revision]
- Latest management guidance vs prior consensus: {Above / In-line / Below}
- Analyst response: {Upgraded / Unchanged / Downgraded}

⚠️ 以上分析仅供参考，不构成投资建议。/ 以上分析僅供參考，不構成投資建議。/ For reference only. Not investment advice.

Error handling

| Situation | 简体中文回复 | 繁體中文 / English | |---|---|---| | command not found: longbridge | 回退到 MCP；如 MCP 也不可用，请安装 longbridge-terminal。 | 回退到 MCP；如也不可用，請安裝 longbridge-terminal。/ Fall back to MCP; if also unavailable, install longbridge-terminal. | | stderr not logged in | 请运行 longbridge auth login 登录。 | 請執行 longbridge auth login。/ Run longbridge auth login. | | consensus < 3 analysts | 覆盖分析师不足 3 位，修正分析仅供参考。 | 覆蓋分析師不足 3 位，修正分析僅供參考。/ Fewer than 3 analysts — revision analysis indicative only. | | No actuals for beat/miss | 跳过超预期分析，注明无历史实际值。 | 跳過超預期分析，注明無歷史數據。/ Skip beat/miss; note no historical actuals. | | Other stderr | 直接显示原始错误，不静默重试。 | 顯示原始錯誤。/ Surface verbatim — do not retry silently. |

MCP fallback

If longbridge CLI is not installed, use MCP tools:

When the CLI is unavailable, fall back to the MCP server. Discover available tools from the MCP server's tool list at runtime — do not rely on hardcoded tool names.

MCP setup: claude mcp add --transport http longbridge https://openapi.longbridge.com/mcp (quote scope).

Related skills

• Raw consensus snapshot → longbridge-consensus
• Post-earnings deep-dive → longbridge-earnings
• Pre-earnings preview → longbridge-earnings-preview
• Full fundamentals → longbridge-fundamental
• Valuation → longbridge-valuation

File layout

longbridge-earnings-revision/
└── SKILL.md   # prompt-only, no scripts/