nft-analysis

NFT Project Analysis

Comprehensive framework for evaluating NFT projects and providing investment recommendations. Focuses on fundamentals, red flags, and risk assessment rather than speculation.

When to Use

• User asks to analyze an NFT collection
• User asks "should I buy this NFT?"
• User wants to evaluate NFT project health
• User asks about NFT price trends or investment potential

Analysis Framework

1. Data Collection

Primary sources:

• OpenSea (floor price, volume, holders, sales)
• Blur, LooksRare, Rarible (alternative marketplaces)
• Twitter (community size, engagement, updates)
• Discord/Telegram (community activity, team presence)
• Etherscan/blockchain explorer (contract, holder distribution)
• Project website (roadmap, team, utility)

Key metrics:

• Floor price (current + historical)
• Trading volume (24h, 7d, 30d)
• Total volume (all-time)
• Unique holders
• Total supply
• Recent sales activity
• Listed count (how many NFTs are listed for sale)
• Marketplace presence (which platforms list the collection)
• Social media followers
• Community engagement

CRITICAL: Check marketplace liquidity FIRST

• Verify NFT is actually listed on marketplaces (OpenSea, Blur, etc.)
• Check on-chain holders count (0 holders = NFTs stuck in contract)
• Verify contract is verified on block explorer
• If zero marketplace presence + zero holders = DEAD MARKET (instant avoid)

2. Chart Pattern Recognition

Healthy patterns:

• Gradual uptrend with consolidation zones
• Higher lows, higher highs
• Multiple horizontal support levels
• Steady volume growth
• Low volatility

Death patterns:

• Pump & dump (sharp spike → crash)
• Death spiral (continuous decline, no support)
• Extreme volatility (0 → peak → 0 → peak → 0)
• Declining volume
• No consolidation zones

Example death chart:

Launch:  0.1 ETH  (accumulation)
Month 2: 0.5 ETH  (PUMP — 5x in days)
Month 3: 0.0 ETH  (CRASH — rug pull)
Month 4: 0.4 ETH  (dead cat bounce)
Month 5: 0.003 ETH (death spiral)

Pattern: TEXTBOOK RUG PULL

3. Red Flags Checklist

Critical red flags (avoid immediately):

• ❌ Zero marketplace listings (not on OpenSea/Blur/any platform)
• ❌ Zero holders on-chain (NFTs stuck in minting contract)
• ❌ Unverified contract (can't verify legitimacy)
• ❌ Floor price < $10 (death territory)
• ❌ No Discord/Telegram (dead community)
• ❌ Zero market cap
• ❌ No development updates in 3+ months
• ❌ Wash trading (high sale count, tiny values)
• ❌ No utility (pure collectible)
• ❌ Team anonymous + no roadmap
• ❌ Pump & dump chart pattern
• ❌ 90%+ decline from peak
• ❌ No recovery catalysts

Warning signs (proceed with caution):

• ⚠️ Small community (< 5k Discord members)
• ⚠️ Low liquidity (< 10 ETH daily volume)
• ⚠️ High holder concentration (top 10 hold > 50%)
• ⚠️ Declining social engagement
• ⚠️ Delayed roadmap milestones
• ⚠️ No partnerships or integrations

Positive signals:

• ✅ Active Discord (10k+ members, daily activity)
• ✅ Regular development updates
• ✅ Real utility (gaming, metaverse, membership)
• ✅ Partnerships with established projects
• ✅ Doxxed team with track record
• ✅ Healthy chart (uptrend, support levels)
• ✅ Growing community
• ✅ Blue-chip status (BAYC, Azuki, Pudgy Penguins)

4. Risk Assessment

Calculate probability-weighted expected value:

Scenarios:
1. Best case (5-10%): 3-10x gain
2. Most likely (70-80%): -50% to +50%
3. Worst case (10-20%): -90% to -100%

Expected value = (P1 × Gain1) + (P2 × Gain2) + (P3 × Loss3)

If EV < 0: AVOID
If EV > 0 but high risk: CAUTION
If EV > 0 and low risk: CONSIDER

Risk levels:

• EXTREME (10/10): Death spiral, abandoned project, rug pull signs
• HIGH (7-9/10): Declining metrics, weak community, no utility
• MEDIUM (4-6/10): Mixed signals, execution risk, market dependent
• LOW (1-3/10): Blue-chip, strong fundamentals, active development

5. Comparison with Similar Projects

Compare against:

• Blue-chip NFTs (BAYC, Azuki, Doodles)
• Same category (PFP, gaming, metaverse)
• Similar launch date
• Similar supply size

Metrics to compare:

• Floor price trajectory
• Volume trends
• Community size
• Development activity
• Utility/roadmap execution

Recommendation Framework

BUY (Serok)

Criteria:

• ✅ All fundamentals strong
• ✅ Active community (10k+ Discord)
• ✅ Regular development updates
• ✅ Real utility or roadmap
• ✅ Healthy chart (uptrend, support)
• ✅ Expected value > 0
• ✅ Risk level: LOW to MEDIUM

Example: Blue-chip NFT during temporary dip

HOLD

Criteria:

• 🟡 Mixed signals
• 🟡 Some red flags but not critical
• 🟡 Execution risk
• 🟡 Expected value ≈ 0
• 🟡 Risk level: MEDIUM

Example: Established project with delayed roadmap

AVOID (Jangan Serok)

Criteria:

• ❌ Multiple critical red flags
• ❌ Death spiral chart pattern
• ❌ Dead community
• ❌ No development
• ❌ Expected value < 0
• ❌ Risk level: HIGH to EXTREME

Example: Project with $8 floor, no Discord, 95% down from peak

Response Format

Structure:

1. Executive summary (BUY/HOLD/AVOID + one-line reason)
2. Current metrics (floor, volume, holders)
3. Chart analysis (pattern recognition)
4. Red flags and positive signals
5. Risk assessment (probability-weighted)
6. Comparison with similar projects
7. Final recommendation with reasoning

Tone:

• Direct and honest (don't sugarcoat bad projects)
• Data-driven (cite specific metrics)
• Risk-aware (acknowledge uncertainty)
• Actionable (clear buy/hold/avoid)
• Lead with risk assessment — users want to know "is this high risk?" upfront, not buried in analysis
• Label risk level prominently — use visual markers (🔴 EXTREME, 🟡 MEDIUM, 🟢 LOW) early in response

For Indonesian users:

• Use "serok" for "buy the dip"
• Use "jangan serok" for "don't buy"
• Keep technical terms in English (floor price, volume, etc.)
• Explain reasoning clearly
• When user says "mantep ini untuk high risk" — they appreciate direct risk labeling and want it upfront, not buried

Pitfalls

• Don't rely on hype — community excitement ≠ good investment
• Don't ignore red flags — one critical red flag can sink a project
• Don't assume recovery — death spirals rarely reverse
• Don't compare apples to oranges — compare within same category
• Don't forget opportunity cost — even if project survives, better options may exist

Verification

• Cross-reference data from multiple sources (OpenSea + Twitter + Discord)
• Check contract on Etherscan for holder distribution
• Look for wash trading (same wallets trading back and forth)
• Verify team claims (partnerships, roadmap milestones)

Example Analysis

See references/numismatis-nft-analysis.md for full example of death spiral project analysis.

See references/ardinals-dead-market.md for agent-only NFT with zero marketplace liquidity (dead market despite active minting).

See references/cloudflare-blocked-workflow.md for workflow when OpenSea blocks direct access (Cloudflare protection).