finance-based-pricing-advisor

Purpose

Evaluate the financial impact of pricing changes (price increases, new tiers, add-ons, discounts) using ARPU/ARPA analysis, conversion impact, churn risk, NRR effects, and CAC payback implications. Use this to make data-driven go/no-go decisions on proposed pricing changes with supporting math and risk assessment.

What this is: Financial impact evaluation for pricing decisions you're already considering.

What this is NOT: Comprehensive pricing strategy design, value-based pricing frameworks, willingness-to-pay research, competitive positioning, psychological pricing, packaging architecture, or monetization model selection. For those topics, see the future pricing-strategy-suite skills.

This skill assumes you have a specific pricing change in mind and need to evaluate its financial viability.

Key Concepts

The Pricing Impact Framework

A systematic approach to evaluate pricing changes financially:

1. Revenue Impact — How does this change ARPU/ARPA?
2. Direct revenue lift from price increase
3. Revenue loss from reduced conversion or increased churn
4. Net revenue impact

1. Conversion Impact — How does this affect trial-to-paid or sales conversion?
2. Higher prices may reduce conversion rate
3. Better packaging may improve conversion
4. Test assumptions

1. Churn Risk — Will existing customers leave due to price change?
2. Grandfathering strategy (protect existing customers)
3. Churn risk by segment (SMB vs. enterprise)
4. Churn elasticity (how sensitive are customers to price?)

1. Expansion Impact — Does this create or block expansion opportunities?
2. New premium tier = upsell path
3. Usage-based pricing = expansion as customers grow
4. Add-ons = cross-sell opportunities

1. CAC Payback Impact — Does pricing change affect unit economics?
2. Higher ARPU = faster payback
3. Lower conversion = higher effective CAC
4. Net effect on LTV:CAC ratio

Pricing Change Types

Direct monetization changes:

• Price increase (raise prices for all customers or new customers only)
• New premium tier (create upsell path)
• Paid add-on (monetize previously free feature)
• Usage-based pricing (charge for consumption)

Discount strategies:

• Annual prepay discount (improve cash flow)
• Volume discounts (larger deals)
• Promotional pricing (temporary price reduction)

Packaging changes:

• Feature bundling (combine features into tiers)
• Unbundling (separate features into add-ons)
• Pricing metric change (seats → usage, or vice versa)

Anti-Patterns (What This Is NOT)

• Not value-based pricing: This evaluates a proposed change, not "what should we charge?"
• Not WTP research: This analyzes impact, not "what will customers pay?"
• Not competitive positioning: This is financial analysis, not market positioning
• Not packaging architecture: This evaluates one change, not redesigning all tiers

When to Use This Framework

Use this when:

• You have a specific pricing change to evaluate (e.g., "Should we raise prices 20%?")
• You need to quantify revenue, churn, and conversion trade-offs
• You're deciding between pricing change options (test A vs. B)
• You need to present pricing change impact to leadership or board

Don't use this when:

• You're designing pricing strategy from scratch (use value-based pricing frameworks)
• You haven't validated willingness-to-pay (do customer research first)
• You don't have baseline metrics (ARPU, churn, conversion rates)
• Change is too small to matter (<5% price change, <10% of customers affected)

Facilitation Source of Truth

Use [workshop-facilitation](../workshop-facilitation/SKILL.md) as the default interaction protocol for this skill.

It defines:

• session heads-up + entry mode (Guided, Context dump, Best guess)
• one-question turns with plain-language prompts
• progress labels (for example, Context Qx/8 and Scoring Qx/5)
• interruption handling and pause/resume behavior
• numbered recommendations at decision points
• quick-select numbered response options for regular questions (include Other (specify) when useful)

This file defines the domain-specific assessment content. If there is a conflict, follow this file's domain logic.

Application

This interactive skill asks up to 4 adaptive questions, offering 3-5 enumerated options at decision points.

Step 0: Gather Context

Agent asks:

"Let's evaluate the financial impact of your pricing change. Please provide:

Current pricing:

• Current ARPU or ARPA
• Current pricing tiers (if applicable)
• Current monthly churn rate
• Current trial-to-paid conversion rate (if relevant)

Proposed pricing change:

• What change are you considering? (price increase, new tier, add-on, etc.)
• New pricing (if known)
• Affected customer segment (all, new only, specific tier)

Business context:

• Total customers (or MRR/ARR)
• CAC (to assess payback impact)
• NRR (to assess expansion context)

You can provide estimates if you don't have exact numbers."

Step 1: Identify Pricing Change Type

Agent asks:

"What type of pricing change are you considering?

1. Price increase — Raise prices for new customers, existing customers, or both
2. New premium tier — Add higher-priced tier with additional features
3. Paid add-on — Monetize a new or existing feature separately
4. Usage-based pricing — Charge for consumption (seats, API calls, storage, etc.)
5. Discount strategy — Annual prepay discount, volume pricing, or promotional pricing
6. Packaging change — Rebundle features, change pricing metric, or tier restructure

Choose a number, or describe your specific pricing change."

Based on selection, agent adapts questions:

If Option 1 (Price Increase):

Agent asks:

"Price increase details:

• Current price: $___
• New price: $___
• Increase: ___%

Who is affected?

1. New customers only (grandfather existing)
2. All customers (existing + new)
3. Specific segment (e.g., SMB only, new plan only)

When would this take effect?

• Immediately
• Next billing cycle
• Gradual rollout (test first)"

If Option 2 (New Premium Tier):

Agent asks:

"Premium tier details:

• Current top tier price: $___
• New premium tier price: $___
• Key features in premium tier: [list]

Expected adoption:

• What % of current customers might upgrade? ___%
• What % of new customers might choose premium? ___%

Cannibalization risk:

• Will premium tier cannibalize current top tier?"

If Option 3 (Paid Add-On):

Agent asks:

"Add-on details:

• Add-on name: ___
• Price: $___ /month or /user
• Currently free or new feature?

Expected adoption:

• What % of customers would pay for this? ___%
• Is this feature currently used (if free)?
• Will making it paid hurt retention?"

If Option 4 (Usage-Based Pricing):

Agent asks:

"Usage pricing details:

• Usage metric: (seats, API calls, storage, transactions, etc.)
• Pricing: $___ per [unit]
• Free tier or minimum? (e.g., first 1,000 API calls free)

Expected impact:

• Average customer usage: ___ units/month
• Expected ARPU change: $current → $new

Expansion potential:

• As customers grow usage, will ARPU increase?"

If Option 5 (Discount Strategy):

Agent asks:

"Discount details:

• Discount type: (annual prepay, volume, promotional)
• Discount amount: ___% off
• Duration: (ongoing, limited time)

Trade-off:

• Lower price vs. improved cash flow (annual prepay)
• Lower price vs. larger deal size (volume)
• Lower price vs. urgency (promotional)"

If Option 6 (Packaging Change):

Agent asks:

"Packaging change details:

• What are you changing? (bundling, unbundling, pricing metric)
• Current packaging: [describe]
• New packaging: [describe]

Expected impact:

• ARPU change: $current → $new
• Conversion change: ___% → ___%
• Churn risk: (low,