Scenario War Room

Tier: POWERFUL Category: C-Level Advisory Tags: scenario planning, war room, risk modeling, cascade effects, contingency planning, pre-mortem, crisis simulation

Overview

The Scenario War Room models cascading what-if scenarios across all business functions. Not single-assumption stress tests -- compound adversity that shows how one problem creates the next, and where the cascade can be interrupted. Every scenario produces concrete hedges with costs, owners, and deadlines.

When to Use

• A major risk has probability above 15% and impact above 20% of ARR
• Two or more threats could plausibly co-occur
• A strategic decision has significant downside if wrong
• Board or investors are asking "what's the worst case?"
• Pre-mortem before a major commitment (fundraise, acquisition, market entry)
• Quarterly risk review for leadership team

When NOT to Use

• Single-variable financial sensitivity analysis (use CFO Advisor stress testing)
• Routine project risk assessment (use project management risk frameworks)
• Technical failure mode analysis (use engineering incident planning)

The 6-Step Cascade Model

Step 1: Define Scenario Variables (Maximum 3)

More than 3 variables creates analysis paralysis, not insight. Choose the 3 that actually keep leadership awake at night.

For each variable, specify:

Variable Template:

Variable A: [Specific change]
  Probability: [X]%  |  Timeline: [When]
  Detection: [Early warning signal]
  First-order impact: [Immediate consequence]

Variable B: [Specific change]
  Probability: [X]%  |  Timeline: [When]
  Detection: [Early warning signal]
  First-order impact: [Immediate consequence]

Variable C: [Specific change]
  Probability: [X]%  |  Timeline: [When]
  Detection: [Early warning signal]
  First-order impact: [Immediate consequence]

Step 2: Domain Impact Mapping

For each variable, assess impact across every business function:

Step 3: Cascade Mapping (The Core)

This is the most valuable step. Map how Variable A triggers consequences that amplify Variable B.

Cascade Diagram:

TRIGGER: Customer churn ($560K ARR)
  │
  ├──▶ CFO: Runway drops 14 → 8 months
  │     │
  │     └──▶ CHRO: Hiring freeze imposed
  │           │
  │           └──▶ CTO: 3 open engineering reqs frozen, roadmap slips 2 months
  │                 │
  │                 └──▶ CPO: Q4 feature launch delayed → 2 more customers at risk
  │                       │
  │                       └──▶ CRO: NRR drops → additional churn risk (DEATH SPIRAL ENTRY)
  │
  └──▶ CRO: Revenue concentration increases (next largest = 22%)
        │
        └──▶ Investors: Concentration risk flagged → Series A terms worsen

Name the cascades explicitly. Common cascade patterns:

Step 4: Severity Matrix

Model three scenarios with increasing severity:

For each severity level, quantify:

BASE SCENARIO (Variable A only):
  Runway impact: [X] months → [Y] months
  ARR impact: -$[X] ([Y]% of total)
  Headcount impact: [freeze / reduction / none]
  Timeline to critical: [X] months
  Recovery plan: [specific actions]

STRESS SCENARIO (Variables A + B):
  Runway impact: [X] months → [Y] months
  ARR impact: -$[X] ([Y]% of total)
  Headcount impact: [specifics]
  Timeline to critical: [X] months
  Recovery plan: [specific actions]

SEVERE SCENARIO (All three):
  Runway impact: [X] months → [Y] months
  ARR impact: -$[X] ([Y]% of total)
  Headcount impact: [specifics]
  Timeline to critical: [X] months
  Existential: [yes/no]
  Emergency plan: [specific actions requiring board approval]

Step 5: Early Warning Signals (Trigger Points)

Define measurable signals that tell you a scenario is unfolding BEFORE it is confirmed. The value of this exercise is acting early, not reacting late.

Signal Design Criteria:

• Observable (you can actually measure it)
• Leading (appears before the full impact)
• Specific (not just "things feel off")
• Actionable (triggers a specific response)

Step 6: Hedging Strategies

For each scenario: actions to take NOW (before the scenario materializes) that reduce impact if it does. Hedges have costs -- the goal is cheap insurance, not paranoia.

Hedge Evaluation Criteria:

Hedge Table Template:

| Hedge | Cost | Protects Against | Owner | Deadline | Status |