Skills publicadas
Mostrando 12 de 28edge-detection
Compares model probabilities against market odds to find positive expected value bets. Use when user asks about EV calculation, edge magnitude, Kelly criterion, bankroll sizing, CLV tracking, closing line value, fractional Kelly, simultaneous bets, or which bets are worth placing. Do not use for odds exploration without a model -- see odds-explorer. Do not use for validating model accuracy -- see
hockey-analytics
Teaches hockey analytics metrics -- Corsi, Fenwick, PDO, xG, zone entries, high-danger chances, RAPM, WAR -- with real data context. Use when user asks what Corsi means, how to interpret PDO, what xG tells you, why Fenwick matters, or asks to explain advanced stats for a team or player. Do not use for betting concepts or odds interpretation -- see odds-analysis. Do not use for building prediction
dispatch
Routes hockey analytics requests to the right 2-3 skills. Load this FIRST when a hockey data or analytics request comes in and you are unsure which skills to activate. Prevents loading all 28 skills when only 2-3 are needed. Also handles first-use persona detection.
totals-modeling
Builds over/under prediction models for NHL game totals using pace, special teams, goalie matchup, and contextual features. Use when user asks about totals modeling, over/under prediction, predicting total goals, goal scoring rates, or NHL scoring trends. Do not use for moneyline or spread prediction -- see model-building. Do not use for player-level goal props -- see prop-modeling. Do not use for
model-building
Trains and validates prediction models for sports game outcomes. Use when user asks about building a prediction model, training a classifier, choosing between logistic regression or XGBoost, model selection, hyperparameter tuning, feature importance, or ensemble methods. Always uses walk-forward methodology -- refuses k-fold. Do not use for feature construction -- see feature-engineering. Do not u
goalie-analysis
Goalie-specific analysis for NHL: leaderboard rankings, workload tracking, starter identification, tandem splits, and matchup history. Includes xG-adjusted metrics -- GSAA, xSV%, HDSA% -- that predict future performance. Use when user asks about goalie stats, save percentage, GAA, quality starts, goalie fatigue, back-to-back starts, or which goalie is starting tonight. Do not use for skater stats
elo-engineering
Builds multi-variant Elo rating systems for sports prediction. Use when user asks about Elo ratings, rating systems, team strength, K-factor, home field advantage, season carryover, margin-of-victory adjustments, or mentions 'Fading Elo', 'Form Elo', 'Component Elo'. Do not use for general feature construction -- see feature-engineering instead. Do not use for team stats without ratings -- see tea
bet-tracker
Track predictions vs actuals in production: log bets, compute CLV, monitor ROI, detect edge decay, and run significance tests. Use when user asks about tracking bets, bet logging, closing line value, CLV, ROI tracking, win rate, drawdown monitoring, or whether their model has an edge right now. Do not use for finding today's bets -- see daily-card or edge-detection. Do not use for historical backt
daily-card
Full slate analysis for tonight's games with edge rankings, odds across books, and recommended stakes. Use when user asks about tonight's slate, best bets tonight, daily card, full slate, tonight's games, which games are worth betting, or wants all games ranked by edge. Do not use for a single game breakdown -- see game-preview. Do not use for historical backtesting -- see backtesting. Do not use
playoff-simulation
Monte Carlo playoff and season simulator for NHL. Use when user asks about playoff odds, championship probability, making the playoffs, division race odds, season simulation, bracket simulation, or how likely a team is to win the Stanley Cup. Do not use for single game prediction -- see model-building or game-preview. Do not use for team stats without simulation -- see team-analysis. Do not use fo
backtesting
Walk-forward historical testing of betting strategies to determine whether a model's edge is real. Use when user asks about backtesting, historical simulation, ROI over a season, whether a strategy works, bootstrap confidence intervals, edge compression, or model audit over time. Refuses in-sample testing -- walk-forward only. Do not use for live bet tracking -- see bet-tracker. Do not use for fin
nl-to-query
Translates natural language hockey queries into structured data filters and executes them via puckapi-tool. Use when user asks a research question in plain English: 'show me games where the home team was outshot but won', 'find all back-to-back losses', 'how often do goalies with 2 days rest outperform their season SV%'. Includes a self-correction loop -- retries with adjusted parameters if the fi